The death of Vellupillai Prabhakaran in the jungles of Northern Sri Lanka, apparently in combat, has raised a number of questuions that beg to be answered. The Sri Lankan Army under the leadership of General Fonsekha launched a highly successful military camapign against the LTTE forcing it to retreat to the narrow coastal strip of Karayammullaikkaval, a mangrover swamp.
The LTTE took with them nearly 250,000 civillians to act as human shield; they counted on the support and sympathy of the Tamil diaspora for clamoring in the Western capitals about the collateral damage, thereby bringing about a cease fire. The Tamil Diaspora has not learnt that the World post 9/11 has little sympathy for terrorist politics and Sri Lanka under the leadership of Mahinda Rajapakse successfully expolited the revulsion against the LTTE. He instyructed the Army not to take civillian casulites into consideration beyond an obvious point, and therefore the blame for the widespread humanitarian crisis falls squarely on the top leadership of the LTTE.
The Sri Lankan Army chalked out ins counter-insurgency strategy with the help of the Israeli organisation, MOSSAD. The fact in India's R&W ( Research and Analysis Wing neither has the intelligence to plan a successful counter-insurgency operation nor is the political leadership capable of giving such a dirrection and the R&W is full of traitors). The first breakthrough came in early May 2009 when the Satellite Phones used by the LTTE were successfully tapped and this provided the confiormation to the Sri Lankan Army that Prabhakaran was still in the region. By this time the LTTE has suffered huge gaps in its command and control structure.
After getting the confirmation that Prabhakaran was still in the region, the Sri Lankan Army moved extremely cautuiously. It sealed the escape route by way of the lagoon and tightened its noose around the 1 sq mile of jungle where Prabhakaran, his son Charels Antony, Soosai and Pulithevan had fortified themselves. The choice before the Sri Lanka Army was either finishing the war on its own terms or allow the Western Powers to once again bale out the LTTE. In fact Norway has consistently shown itself to be less than an honest negotiator in the entire peace process.
Meanwhile the Indian Election were proving to be a majoe headache for the Sri Lankan Government. After following a policy of benign neglect as far as the ethnic violence in Sri Lanka was concerned, the Tamil chayvanist parties like the DMK and the MDMK started making dangerous noises over the ethnic issue. In fact even Jayalalithaa who stridently opposed Prabhakaran even included the creation of Tamil Eelam in her Manifesto. This dangerous development only meant that the Sri Lankan Government had to bring the war to an end before the Elections ended in India. The victory of the DMK in the Tamil Nadu elections in which the Party won 18 seats only hastened the decision in Colombo.
At mid-night on May 16th, 2009 the battle hardened 58 and 59 Divisions move into the lagoon. They encircled the fortified positions on the periphery of the jungle and fire using heavy artillery. The Sri Lankan Government's promise to the Indian Givernment not to use Heavy Weapons extracted after the farcical fast of Karunanidhi was not meant to be taken seriously both by the International Community and the Tamil Politicians. From this point onwards the story becomes murky.
According to some reports the top leadership consisting og Nadesan and Pulithevan came out of their bunkers waving white flags and were gunned down, and around nightfall an ambulance with steel plated weled on to its sides came rushing out. The Sri Lankan Army opened fire blowing the Ambulance to bits. And it was claimed that Prabhakaran was in the Ambulance.
It is ceratain that even before the announcement made by the Sri Lankan Army that Prabhkaran died on the 17th of May, it is likely that he and the top leadership had been killed. While the Army admits that the son, Charles Antony was killed on May 16th what makes them delay the death of Prabhakaran by nearly 36 hours.
The Indian Election which saw the victory of the Congress and the DMK in Tamil Nadu sealed Prabhakaran's fate. Even if the President of Sri Lanka sought to hand over Prabhakaran to India for trial over the killing of Rajiv Gandhi, the pressure from the DMK will only result in Prabhakaran being handed over to a third country like Norway. To preemt this the LTTE chief was eliminated.
The LTTE did not see the writing on the wall. In retrospect it is clear that Col Karuna's decision to split the LTTE was the beginning of the end. The LTTE leadership came from the north while the cardres came from the east and with the exit of Col Karuna this source of recruitment ceased. The participation of the Israelis in crafting a successful strategy and the indifference in India over the fate of Prabahakaran are some of the other factors.