Democracy falters and Monnarchy wilts
An impoverished, violent and at time prophetic journalist of the !9th century once wrote:Events in History appesr twice; first time a tragedy and second time a farce. This statement is more true of Nepal than it was on the !8th Brumaire of Napoleon Bonaparte.
Three years ago there was a strage coup in Nepal. The entire Royal Family was shot dead and the blame was thrown on Prince Dependra the heir to the throne. The killing of the entire family meant that the pattern of succession changed from the family ofBirendtra to King Gyanendra and his prince of darknessParas. The people of Nepal freely admit that masked gunmen weraring the disguise of Prince Depenra were resopnsible for the Palace Massacre which brought the present king to power. The new king does not enjoy public support and the Monarcy is more unpopular now than it ever was. A small elite of warrior Ranas have now seized power after dismissing the Government of Sher Bahadur Deuba.
The likely fallout of this farce is the further intesification of the Moaist uprising. So far the Royal Nepal Army has been disciplined but disaffection is spreading in the ranks. The Moaists are following the strategy of giving redistributed agricultural land to soldiers who died in the conflict with the Moaist gureillas. This tactic is proving so successful that the recent strike called by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) wasalmost total in most parts of the country. They were even able to show their support in Khatmandu where the soldiers were out in strength.
This year will be acrucial year for Nepal. The rate at which the Maoists are taking over the countryside and fedistributing the land suggests that before the end of this year they will be strong enough to storm the Capital. The monarchy stands discredited and isolated and when the hour comes it wil wilt.