USA WILL NOT SUCCEED IN IRAN AS WELL
More tham 45 years ago Dr Henry Kissenger wrote a book which is more relevant today than it was in 1958 when Harvatrd University published it. Entitled [I]Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy[/I]this book argued the provocative thesis that the Westphalia System of having the State with its monopoly on the coercive power represented by the army and the like will not be the sole determinant of foreign policy in the nuclear age. Any state attempting to change the international status quo will perforce take the route to nulearisation. Unfortunately these insights seem to be forgotten by the very neocons whose short sighted and blindly aggressive foreign policy has led the USA to the quagmire of Iraq. Francis Fukuyama has come out strongly against the neocon agenda in his latest book. How then are we (thinking individuals) to proceed.
First, is Iran in violation of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty. Honest opinion is rather divided on this question. Most agree that Iran did hide part of its research program from the UN watch dog agency. However, nuclear enrichment is not prohibited by the NPT. Therefore Iran is on solid ground on this issue.
USA agues that nuclear enrichment is a threat to the region. One look at the map will explain why Iran is furiously in favor of nuclear enrichment: Iran is ringed with a whole aray of nuclear powers"India, Pakistan, China and of course, Israel. Further the USA has forwars bases equipped with short and long rane nuclear tipped missiles at Qatar, Iraq, Turkey, Uzbegistaan and certainly Afghanistan. In such a geo political situation it is highly unrealistic on the part of the USA to expect Iran to give up its programme. This is precisely what Dr Henry Kissenger had pointed out in that brilliant book with which I began this blog. The is an undercurrent of racism in the nuclear debate that politie opinion does not quite address. The fact is that Anglo Saxon countries have enjoyed the near monopoly of the use and deployment of nuclear weapons and have shown the willingness to use shock and awe against non white peoples of the world (Iraq being the most recent victim). In such a scenario no amount of sabre rattling by Bush abd the Bushmen is going to help. Unfortunately, the USA keeps harping on the Al Qaeda factor and as far as the acqusition of the bomb is concerned even Muslim states will not permit non state actors like Alqaeda to acquire the nuclear weapons. This fundamental point is not understood by the present US Administration.
Does the USA hope, realistically speaking, to attak Iran and get away unscathed. The country has not forgotten the horrors of CIA sponsored coups and countercoups during the long years of the Shah's reign. THe unkindest cut of all: yes let me remind all of you: THE USA ARMED AND ENCOURAGED SADDAM HUSSEIN DURING THE TEN YEAR WAR WITH IRAN IN WHICH US SUPPLIED CHEMICAL WEAPONS TO SADDAM HUSSEIN. With such a background and history is Iran ever going to consider the USA a dis interested party. Rigtly or wrongly Iranians feel that the USA is creating a climate for a war using the same sort of bogey created around Iraq during the run up to the War three years back. The world has not forgotten the fact that the USA shot down a civillian passenger plane belonging to Iran killing more than 200 passengers on board. Iranians are familiar with the vacuous noises from Washington DC and it is extremelu unlikely that they will take US threats seriously. The world knowns that USA will not attak a nucleatr power and hence the Iranians aspire for nuclear capacity just short of weaponisation. See how Bush and the Bushmen are silent over NOrth Korea.
There is another factor. There is another undeclared nuclear power in the region and no one can be insensitive to Iranian fears that that power which has with impunity violated UN resolutions is capable of doing the bidding on behalf of the US establishment.
The fact is that the Iranians cooperated with the American in their war against Afghanistan and also gave tactical support during the offensive against Saddam Hussein. Iran was in an economic crisis a few years back but thanks to the soaring oil prices the Iranians are well on the way to economic recovery."