The humanitarian crisis caused by the unrestrained bombing of civilian targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut by Israeli fighter jets has been ignored by the world. Even the Arab nations which are quick to condemn every act of reppraisal by Israel have largely been silent. While the governments of the so-called moderate Arab states have remained prudently silent over the Israeli attacks on Lebanon, the opinion in the Arab streets is getting polorised and this is a dangerous trend. The response of Israel to the kidnapping of the 2 soldiers of the IDF by militants of the Hizbollah has been grossly dispropotionate and what is worse will not serve the purpose behind the outbreak of the present round of hostilities. With 354 civilians dead and around 10,000 wounded and nearly 150,000 displaced Israel has caused a crisis of gargantuan propotions. Even USA has been contrained to call upon Israel to show "restraint".
Why does Israel show such virulence in its attack on Lebanon? Israel has had a history of military involvement in Lebanon and withdrew from souther Lebanon only in 2000 after a most disastrous intervention. Lebanon is largely a creation of World War I and after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire a number of Arab states came into existence with the aid and complicity of the British secret service--Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt etc etc. Lebanon itself part of the Levant over which France dominated was turned into a complex mosaic of ethnic and religious identities, Druze, Christian, Moslem, Arab, Kurds and of course the different sects of the Mosl;em faith. The civil war that broke out in 1972 resulted in a total breakup of the country as warring groups clashed with each other for control over parts of the city of Beirut and its neighborhood. Israel intervened in order to evict the PLO which it rightly held to be responsible for the civil and military uinrest. After the expulsion of the PLO Israel occupied the country and ruled with an iron fist. The refugee camp of Shatilla became a world wide symbol of Israeli brutality.
It is against this historical background that Israeli policy in Lebanon has to be viewed. The Prime Minister Ehud Olmer is right when he says that Hizbollah is a major military force in the region. UN Resolution 1559 states that all militas operating in southern Lebanon must be disbanded. The negotiations to merge the military arm of Hizbollah wuith the Lebanese army had started and was making some progress when the plan to kidnap the 2 soldiers brought this crisis. What Hizbollah had in mind was a straight prisoner swap but Olmert used this pretext to shore up his fragile government by taking a high handed stand of no negotiations with this organixzatrion.
The fact is that other Arab nations have not come out strongly in support of Lebanon and this has only emboldened Israel to attack with impinity as Arab governmental opinion was tepid to say the least. The moderate Arab states believe that should movements like Hizbollah succeed thenthat would provide a model for regime change in their own countries and so would prefer to see that movement crushed by Israel. In fact Israel is doing the dirty job for the Arab states who would like the Hizbollah movement defeated. This official policy is ofcourse at variance with the opinion of the average Arab on the street. And the failure of the Arab states to condemn Israeli attaks on the civilian population of Lebanon is of course a major success of the American policy which has successfully drafted the moderate states as standard bearers of the US led war on terror.
Syria and Iran are the only countries in the region with the political,and military will to resist Israeli intentions in Lebanon. Will Syria risk war with Israel. At this moment in spite of aggressive noises coming from Tel Aviv, Israel seems to avoid a direct confrontation with Syria. Since Hizbollah is a Shiaa militia, the Iranians have moral and material authority over organisation. The fact is that Hizbollah is opposed to the stand of Al Qaeda and could have been drated effectively to fight terror. However, this opprotunity has been lost and Iran and Syria have emerged as strong regiional powers thanks to this crisis.
The US Administration is analysis the option of using the present state of flux to attack Iran. If this should happen then Syria and Iran will join forces and there will be chaos in the Middle East. With the price of oil touching 80$ we cannot afford another cisis.