Is the Partition along ethnic lines inevitable
The US invasion of Iraq has had one major consequence on the population of Iraq: It has splintered the population of that country along sectarian lines and the rift seems to be getting wider than ever. The previous regime has ensured stability in the region through a mixture of quile, strong-arm tactics and plain old fashioned terror. Whatever may have been the faults, real or imagined, of Saddam Hussein, no one can accuse the regime of playing hookey with the task of governance of the country. He did ensure a stable, prosperous, and an educated Iraq: And the years of US occupation make many Iraqis look back with nostaslgia, the halycon days gone by. This is because the Iraq of today, brought in by the US occupation is a land of organised killing by death squards linked with the al Maliki regime, with sectarian armies like the Mahdi Army, drive by shootings inspired by Shia and Sunni political gangs, and car bombings. Every day around 100 or so people are dying in and around the city ogf Baghdad alone and even in the relatively quiet cities of Samara and Basra, the rate of killing is going up. The much hyped "surge" of Bush, as I rightly predicted, is a collosal failure and unfortunately Bush will, like his other partner in crime Blair, escape the pain of law.
During the last 4 yrars a large scale reshaping of the Iraqi demographic profile has been taking place. Figures are hard to come by. For instance, most UN agencies palce the death toll in the 4 years of US occupation at around 650,000. The Americans hotly contest that figure and place the figure at only a tenth of the widely accepted figure in order to minimise the impact of the US led invasion. The Iraqi Red Crescent has, in its figures released recently, stated that 1,70.000 families have been dispalced since the US led invasion. The cities have become unlivable because of the impunity with which car bombs are detonated. The schools even in the Baghdad region hardly function and the hospitals have become big gigantic morgues. The prices of essential commodities is very high and fuel and cooking gas is hardly delivered. The living conditions of ordinary citizens of Iraq has become a living hell.
The inability of the US to check the al qaeda, and the sustasined campaign of ethnic cleansing has led to Iraqis moving into areas where they have safety in numbers. The Sunnis are moving north and west and the Christians to the far north. With this kind of an ethnic profile it appears that a partion along ethnic lines is what the US seeks in Iraq. But that would be a bigger mistake than even the invasion itself. The only sure winner in all this is Iran, which has emerged as the key state in the region.