Reasons, Issues and Prospects
When Great Powers collapse they do so in a spectacular manner. The Fall of Rome, the Mongols, the Chinese Empire and of course the latest on the block, the US Empire have all presented a awful and yes, a frightful spectacle. Why did the US fail in Iraq. This question will be debated for years on end and will provide the grist for several doctoral theses over the years. I see the collapse of US power in Iraq from two distinct points of view: Strategic and political. The Iraq study group made a very good beginning, but did not go far enough in its conclusions. The group was more concerned covering up for the Bush Administration, than giving a set of clear policy alternatives.
To begin with, the decision to turn over the security of Iraq gradually to an Iraqi Army has proved to be a non starter. The Iraqi Army is not ready, and worse still, the few units that are somewhat battle trained owe their primary loyalty to the sectarian militias and not to the so called green zone government. The Bush strategy of staying the course has utterly failed and the surge has not made any difference on the ground. Realising this Gordon Brown wisely has decided to take British troops out of Iraq..
The Iraq study group advocated deccentralising of political power. This would only make the civil war even worse and even the Kurdish areas will become unstable and violent like the Sunni Triangle. The open ended American assurance to their quislings in the Green Zone is only prolonging the agony of the Iraqi people. It is time that the US just quit and let the Iraqis sort out the mess Bush and Blair made of Iraq.
The main reason for the collapse of the US strategy in Iraq is the fact that while the US wabnted only a regime change in Iraq as the immediate objective of the War, it lost sight of this clear objective and started talking of "nation building and democracy" in Iraq. The disbanding of the Iraqi Army was a major blunder and as a consequence the decision making competence of the Iraqi people is leaking into the neighbouring states and their capitals: Amman, Damascus and Theran are more important than Baghdad. INdeed the US propper government will not last the day the US pulls out of Iraq and Saddam's fate awaits all of them who collaborated with the Occupation. Because of the failure of the US to control the territory of Iraq, regional powers are getting sucked into the vortex of the Iraqi maelstorm. In the early days of the occupation itself the Administrative competence of the Iraqi state was lost. 21 ministies were stripped clean of furniture and records.
The security and political vacuum created by the US occupation is filled by sectarian and religious militias. Organised crime is the only growth industry in Iraq today thanks to the US and its occupation.
The Civil War in Iraq itself is the consequence of the failure of the US occupation. The US imposed government has lost all its credibility and legitimacy in the eyes of the ordinary Iraqi. The Bloomberg School of Public Health of the John Hopkins University has estimated nearly 654,000 deaths, consequent on the US occupation. This figure works out to a daily average casualty rate of 2,500. Add to this nearly 450,00 Iraqis have been forced out of their homes. There are two factors behind the growing violence in Iraq. First the failure of the Government to provide security has meant that locality level militias are bein organised to protect the neighnourhoods. Second as there is a shortage of everythin Iraqis are forced to rely on the orgasnise blackmarket for their day to day survival. There is yet another vector in this situation. A large number of gangs compete and collaborate with each other in the on going civil war. The US estimates that there are around 130 armed groups operating in Iraq, with nearly 70,000 fighters. These include 1The Islamic Army 2 Partisans of the Sunna Army 3 The Mujahadeen Army 4 Islamic Resistance Army. The ideological carapace of these groups is a potent mixture of Arab nationalism and extreme Salafism. The ideology of Jihad is widely believed in. Foreign fighters are very few and even the US estimates only 5% are foreighn nationals.
The collapse of the Iraqi state has made conditions for the rise of such violence. The US has not made things easier. The Haditha Incident, the Mahamoudiya Killings, the Abu Gharaib Scandal and the more recent Blackwater shootings have completely eroded the faith of people in the US. Paul Brenner in his absolute stupidity not only disbabded the Iraqi army but also brough out politiciand like Chabalis--corrupt and cynical--to help democratise Iraq.Shia leaders like al-Sistani threw their weight behind this move but were soon disillusioned by the kind of blatant corruption that pervades in the Green Zone today.
The sooner the US gets out of Iraq the better it would be for all.