Can the situation improve
In a recent issure of Foreign Affairs, Larry Diamond has presented a lucid analysis of monumental strategic and tactical blunders
by the Bush Administration. Lack of cleatr political objectives is perhaps the most serious flaw. Merely overthrowing a discredited regime of Saddam Hussain and proclaiming to the world at large " mission accomplished" does not merit any attention. Force is used in international relations as a complement to diplomacy and statecraft. Force can never be an end initself, as has happened in Iraq tody. Having waged war without the sanction of the UN and against the wishes of the entire world, the Anglo American assault on Iraq lacks legitimacy, and both these allies are fighting a lonely war in which with every passing day the hope of outright victory is fading.
On the military front the number of troops sent to Iraq is nowhere near enough to do the task for which they were sent. To make
matters worse, the American Pro consul in Iraq Paul Bremer III chose to disband the Iraqi army instead of allowing it to confront the insurgency and involve it in the task of nation building.
There was real lack of intellegince on the nature of opposition in the country to Anglo American occupation. While urban guerilla warfare was expected in a limited measure, the Americans were wholly unprepared for the systematic and relentless nature of
resistance. The USA failed to create a stable civil society in Iraq and its handpicked Governing Council consisted of discredited faces like Ahmed Chablis. The people had nothing but contempt for the denizens of the Green Zone. Without a legitimate government in place it is difficult to contain the insurgency.
The early stages of the Insurgency in Fallujah was marked by needless bloodshed. Instead of using Sistani to curb the militancy
the USA made a joint front of Shia ans Sunni groups possible. Hearts and Minds cannot be won when helicopter gunships do the talking .
The Occupation forces conmpletely hishandled the insurrection of Muqtado al-Sadr. At the initial stages of the insurgency this radical cleric had no support base. The ruthless crackdown in Fallujah drove men in droves into the waiting arms of this cleric.
The January elections are the last hope for the Anglo American Occupation. The conditions are not suitable for the conduct of the polls and in case there is a Sunni boycott of the elections, the hand picked administration of Allawi will lose the little credibility it has.