Will the Elections Serve American Interest
On January 30 2005 the 14 million people of Iraq will go to the polls in order to elect a National Assembly which will draft the Constitution on the basis of which another election will be called. The Iraqi people have rejected these elections on the ground that it will not bring a legitimate government to power. Actually the conduct of the election itself may serve to bolster the fading and rapidly eroding credibility of Allawi. Most Iraqis look upon Allawi as a Quisling protected by a cordon of security guards hired from an American Security firm. Everyday there are attacks on the American and Iraqi targets perceived to be close to the occupying forces. The attacks are getting brazen by them day. In the last two weeks there have been more than two dozen attacks in Bagdad many of them dangerously close to the sanitised Green Zone. So much for the violence.
What are American objectives in these elections. First, it is part of the American strategy of dis engagement from Iraq. Successful elections would mean that the USA can turn over security to the new government holding of course veto over operational matters. Thus thesem elections do not mean a return to Iraqi sovereignty. The USA also hopes to silence the growing number of voices from the Middle East which has been calling for a withdrawal from Iraq. American occupation of the OIl
fields can now be legitimised through a modus viviendi with a collaborating government.
The Iraqi Ressistance is determined not to allow this policy to succeed. They have made the American Forces targets and more than 1000 of them are being killed or wounded every month. The Allawi forces especially the Police force is opoenly siding with the Resistance. Dr Condaleeza Rice and other senior members of the Bush Administration are at pains to argue that the sudden spurt of violence in Iraq is only the last ditch attempt on the part of the Saddam loyalists to scuttle the election. Nothing is further from the truth tham this self deluding proposition of the Bush Administration. There is the very real possibility that Iraqis will not accept these elections and their results at all which would mean that the spiral of violence will careen out of control. The optimistic statement of H E Collin Powell that the troops will return HOME by the end of 2005 will not happen. Turning the war over to the Iraqis is not realistic because they will not fight to further the political and strategic interests of an occupying force.
The American political establishment is familiar with a peculiar U S contribution to Democratic Theory: Gerrymandering. How can they not practice thie original American innovation in Iraq. The Iraqis are quite familiar with the first past the winning post system of elections, like the one in the great Anglo Saxon democracy of Tony Blairdom. The American Viceroy in Iraq, Paul Bremmer replaced this system with a system based on propotional Representation based on the list of candidates provided by the recognised political parties. All that the US and its collaborator Allawi have to do is to influence those who put together the list.
The Iraqis are aware of all these inherent problems and hence will not play ball with the USA.
The elections will not help in bringing peace to Iraq and the manner in which the Electoral process is being manipulated make the whole excersice suspect.