Everyine blames the poor pollsters for predicting an outright win for Barack Obama in the New Hampshire primaries. In fact he got 37% of the ballots cast, exactly as predicted by the opinion polls. The figures for Hilary Clinton were wrong and were off target by 13 % points. Everone expected Obama to win and with the momentum of 2 victories he was to sail through to South Carolina where the African American votes were his for the taking. That at least was the conventional wisdom. But the upse...
The successful assasination of Ms Benazir Bhutto did not come as a surprise to me as I had virtually predicted it in an earlier blog. And dont jump to conclusions, I am continents away. Let me begin by saying that the death of this brave, courageous and at times imperious woman is a tragedy and my heart goes out to her three children and her mother.But in politics we must not let sentimentality cloud our vision, we must see the reality for what it is. Benazir Bhutto took the wrong decision...
A few days back I had predicted that the US support to "democracy" by brokering a power sharing arrangement with the Military regime in Pakistan will lead to instability in the region: the attack on the cavalcade of Ms Bhutto in Karachi proves that my assessment was right. The return of Benazir Bhutto to Pakistan at this juncture is not in the interest of peace in the region: her covert endorsement of US military strategy in the "War against Terror" has made Ms Bhutto's posion extremely vu...
When Great Powers collapse they do so in a spectacular manner. The Fall of Rome, the Mongols, the Chinese Empire and of course the latest on the block, the US Empire have all presented a awful and yes, a frightful spectacle. Why did the US fail in Iraq. This question will be debated for years on end and will provide the grist for several doctoral theses over the years. I see the collapse of US power in Iraq from two distinct points of view: Strategic and political. The Iraq study group made a...
The US invasion of Iraq has had one major consequence on the population of Iraq: It has splintered the population of that country along sectarian lines and the rift seems to be getting wider than ever. The previous regime has ensured stability in the region through a mixture of quile, strong-arm tactics and plain old fashioned terror. Whatever may have been the faults, real or imagined, of Saddam Hussein, no one can accuse the regime of playing hookey with the task of governance of the coun...
There is a strong feeling among Republican faithfuls that George W Bush took them on a merry goose chase all over the wilds without even once gracefully accepting the core values and beliefs of the conservative sections of society. The Republicans might even in the Presidency in November 2008 because as things stand there is no White Male candidate in sight and it is therefore unlikely that Hilary Clinton will get the kind of support that a strong white male candidate can get. And if her runn...
There seems to be an emergining consensus amongst the US military establishment: there is every danger of the US occupation of Iraq collapsing in a medley of confusion a la Vietnam. One factor that nobody talks about is the fact that the leadership has lost the conviction that the Iraq War can be won and to ask the military to carry on a failing mission is only counterproductive. The surge of 21,000 more troops has not eased the security situation in Ieaq and the Baghdad security,plan has all...
The Baghdad Security Paln has been launched with great fanfare. The al Maliki Government and the Secretary Defence, Dr Robert Gates were both extremely optimistic about the success of this Plan. A week into the operation and six appache helicopters later the Plan has slowly, but surely, begun to get stuck. Let me state that the paln was well thought out and could have worked has certain basic conditions been met. First, there was need for the sectarian violence to be tamed through a politica...
Finally the US voting public has awoken to the fact that the Iraq War into which President Bush plunged his unsuspecting people is virtually lost. Even Republicans are breaking ranks and are calling for the withdrawal of troops and the Bush strategy of escalation, euphemestically caslled "surge" will come a cropper. Having said the obvious let me move on to the issue at hand. Barack Obama made a fine speech at Springfield, standing on the very steps that Lincon had walked 160 years earlier...
The state of the Union Speech was a piece of political theatre and it cerainly set the Republican fox amongst the Democrat pigeons. George Bush, struggling for political relevance did what every politician is distress does: he coopted the entire Democrat agenda for himself. This astute move will ceratinly gain him some political mileage, but the conservatives will feel that they have been betrayed and the Democrats will feel upstaged. This round to George Bush. The Democrats realising the g...
The excecution of Saddam Hussein aon the day of Id marks an opportune moment to look back on his life, his brand of politics and of course, his relationship with the US which extended over three decades. I must say at the very outset that I deplore all that Saddam Hussein did in his life time, but yet maintain that the killing was not just bad politics but totally unjustified due to the fact that he did not receive a fair trial. Saddam Hussein was born on 28th April 1937 near Tikri to a s...
The Bush White House has let it be known to the world at large that though the Iraq Stusy Group had called for negotiations with Syria and Iran, the strategy of the Bush regime is to "surge"troops in Ieaq. What on earth does this mean. There are two options only. On the one hand it means that there will be more American troops on Iraqi soil and therfore more casualities. Instead of saying that troop strength is to be increased the Bushmen have mangaled the English language and term it "sur...
In a few months from now Tony Blair would have given up the Premiership to Gordon Brown, his long neglected successor. As he leaves Downing Street, it is time to reflect upon the remarkable carreer of Tony Blair and his most uninspiring legacy he leaves behind. He shares along with Dame Margret Thatcher the distinction of being the only PM re elected thire in English history. He shares with Maggie the credit for reshaping the very contours of contemporary politics. While the Graet Dame enjoy...
In a few months from now Tony Blair would have given up the Premiership to Gordon Brown, his long neglected successor. As he leaves Downing Street, it is time to reflect upon the remarkable carreer of Tony Blair and his most uninspiring legacy he leaves behind. He shares along with Dame Margret Thatcher the distinction of being the only PM re elected thire in English history. He shares with Maggie the credit for reshaping the very contours of contemporary politics. While the Graet Dame enjoy...
The Establishment has finally spoken. Nearly 10 years after the tragic death of Princess Diana, a Report prepared by the British Establishment tries to do the impossible--square the circle. The fact that the death of Princess Diana appeared to follow exactly the same sequence of events as she predixcted to her buter seems to me to be crucial. She said that the Palace will try to kill her in a car accident and that happened within weeks of her making that prediction. Does that not appear too ...